Mass introduction of electric passenger vehicles in Brazil: impact assessment on energy use, climate mitigation and on charging infrastructure needs for several case studies

Mobility has proved to be a major challenge for human development, especially in urban centers worldwide, where more displacement is required, since fossil fuels consumption is increasing as well as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, causing air quality degradation and global warming. The predicted population increase in cities tends to increase the demand for mobility and to further exacerbate those impacts. Therefore, sustainable transport is key for the future of mobility, and electric vehicle (EV) has emerged as a recognized sustainable option. However, there are many electric vehicle barriers diffusion. This research aims to contribute to the diffusion of EV in Brazil, by assessing: 1) whether EV is a more sustainable technology when compared with ethanol vehicle; 2) the impacts of the expansion of electric mobility on CO2 emissions, in Sao Paulo; 3) how to overcome the barriers for the charging infrastructure deployment at the municipality level, in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte; and 4) key challenges and opportunities from the mass adoption of EV in Brazil. A plethora of different methods were used, including scenario analysis, multi-criteria decision methods, geographic information systems and SWOT analysis. Main results point to EV as the best technology to mitigate passenger transport related CO2 emissions in Brazil, due to its low carbon footprint. In Sao Paulo, this option could reduce around 11 MtCO2 by 2030 and save 6,200 billion USD in energy with the replacement of 20 percent of gasoline cars with EV. To meet 1 percent of EV's market share, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte together will need around 6,500 charging stations concentrated in around 1/3 of their territories (level 2). Brazil may likely have up to 10 percent of EV penetration by 2030, with the diffusion taking place mostly in southeastern municipality. Ethanol, lack of electric mobility public policy, non-urbanized like subnormal agglomerates, and risk areas, like flood hazard, are major obstacles for EV diffusion in Brazil